McClaren's luck to mirror Napoleon's?

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Updated: Oct. 15, 2007
McClaren's luck to mirror Napoleon's?
Richard Jolly
Archive

As England head to Russia for their crucial Euro2008 qualifier they could do worse than take heed of former manager Graham Taylor's interest in the fortunes of a previous visitor to Moscow.


Empics
Moment of truth in Moscow: Steve McClaren facing vital showdown with Guus Hiddink

Taylor, a hugely unfortunate, though not particularly good England boss, is fond of quoting Napoleon Bonaparte, who himself preferred lucky generals to good ones; but Napoloeon's luck famously ran out in Moscow with the onset of the Russian winter. The question here is will Steve McClaren's?

England's recent sequence of 3-0 wins has been notable as much for its good fortune as it's compliant opposition; the majority of injuries have had their upsides, either by sparing McClaren a difficult decision or in allowing an opportunity to a player who has grasped it.

Yet defeat on the Luzhniki Stadium's plastic pitch would represent a change of fortune that could ultimately result in the end of McClaren's tenure without leading England to a major international tournament.

Caretakers excepted, Don Revie is his only predecessor with such an unwanted distinction.

Standing in McClaren's way is Guus Hiddink, the man many believe should have been appointed instead of him and with an unrivalled record of overachievement with different countries in international football.

Yet, aided by having a superior set of players at his disposal, the Yorkshireman bested the Dutchman at Wembley last month. To do so again would confound most expectations of him.

Expectations of Hiddink are regularly confounded. In his team selection and his tactics, he can be a gambler, unafraid to sideline his biggest names and willing to back his own hunches. Two decades at the summit of management shows he is often right and his reputation can survive the few occasions when he is not.

McClaren's cannot. If no previous England manager has attracted such vitriolic criticism so quickly, it is because none have had the fundamental disadvantage of being Steve McClaren. But after six weeks of surprisingly successful decision-making, two more matches of correct choices will take England to Euro 2008.

Yet if it really is a masterplan then McClaren's talents extend to deception. The reality is that things have fallen into place. His assertions that Gareth Barry, for instance, has always been a fine player, while true, carry less credibility after ignoring the Aston Villa captain for almost a year.

Having rediscovered his faith in David Beckham, injury spared him from further subservience to the former captain. And after Emile Heskey defied predictions on his recall, his limitations, especially in front of goal, should preclude regular selection. His metatarsal injury spared McClaren a difficult decision against Estonia on Saturday.

However, decision-making cannot be dodged on Wednesday.

With Barry's presence a certainty now, Frank Lampard remains an issue. So, too, do England's tactics. McClaren has recognised that 4-4-2 has its failings, yet his principal attempts to implement another system - in Croatia last year - yielded far worse results.

Should England, as they did in Zagreb, alter formation in a quest to retain possession? It would enable the manager to reinstate Lampard, though it is only those in the England clique who fail to understand why he has been booed after two years of mediocrity in the colours of his country.


Empics
Barry: Indispensable or expandable?

More pertinently to the team's fortunes, Russia, like most Hiddink sides, are likely to have three players in the centre of midfield and England risk being outnumbered.

Yet the inability of some players to function in formations other than 4-4-2 may mean that the safest approach is to persevere with the same system.

Replacing the injured Ashley Cole with Barry at left-back would permit a way back for Lampard and thereby ease the mind of a manager who is always reluctant to offend his supposed star players.

However, that would bring a return of the malfunctioning Steven Gerrard-Lampard axis in the centre of midfield. Accommodating the Chelsea and Liverpool men as well as Barry in the same 4-4-2 shape requires the omission of either Joe Cole, whose flair is vital, or Shaun Wright-Phillips, whose pace could be invaluable on the counter-attack, with either Barry or Gerrard adopting a wider role.

In this argument Wright-Phillips is the more likely to be sacrificed, with solidity required and Gerrard a more dependable option.

Then there is another uneasy alliance in attack. Wayne Rooney and Michael Owen hardly conform to each other's concept of an ideal partner. The former rarely reproduces his Manchester United form for England, while the latter is either a scorer or anonymous, yet it is inconceivable McClaren will sideline either. Even Paul Robinson, his confidence seemingly at an all-time low, is in the rank of the 'undroppables'.

So, if England are to keep the clean sheet that will make thoughts of a summer trip to Switzerland and Austria more realistic, much depends upon Sol Campbell.

With Jamie Carragher alienated and John Terry unlikely to be fit, Campbell's international exile has been ended. Should his alliance with Rio Ferdinand prove as effective as it did during the 2002 World Cup, it could enable England to display the sort of resilience they demonstrated a decade ago in Rome, when a goalless draw sufficed.

The consequence, however, would be that McClaren would face a dilemma when his captain returned. That's a problem for another day, for now he has enough on his plate: whether to persevere with Robinson, whether to recall Lampard, whether Rooney and Owen are compatible, how to cover for the missing Cole and which formation to favour.

Decisions, decisions. This represents the ultimate proof of if McClaren is the man to make them.